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MPCG
Independent Research

The structure of the fuel.

Independent long-form research on the uranium market. Geology, fuel cycle, geopolitics, price structure. We write what we learn. We invest behind it.

ElementU · 92
Half-life U-2384.468 billion years
ReferenceNatural · 0.72% U-235

Four things this archive actually covers.

Pillar 01

Geology of
the commodity

Where uranium sits, why it sits there, and why geology determines cost, not the other way around. Deposit types, grade economics, the five processes that concentrate uranium to mineable levels.

Pillar 02

Fuel cycle
and bottleneck

How uranium becomes reactor fuel. Mining, conversion, enrichment, fabrication. Why enrichment captures more economic value than mining. The Western bottleneck.

Pillar 03

Geopolitics
and supply risk

Why the fuel cycle is a geopolitical system, not a commercial market. Concentration risk, Central Asian supply dynamics, Russian integration, the African discount. Central European specificity.

Pillar 04

Scenario
and price structure

Modeling what happens under stress. Supply disruption, enrichment weaponization, demand shocks, counterfactuals. Distinctive analytical work, not commentary.

Where the world's uranium actually comes from.

Global production · 2025E
Source · WNA / company reports
Projection · Equirectangular
Unit · kilotonnes U per year
Simple World MapAuthor: Al MacDonald Editor: Fritz Lekschas License: CC BY-SA 3.0 ID: ISO 3166-1 or "_[a-zA-Z]" if an ISO code is not available
Kazakhstan 40% · 22 kt
Canada 15% · 8 kt
Namibia 11% · 6 kt
Australia 9% · 5 kt
Uzbekistan 7% · 4 kt
Russia 5% · 3 kt
Niger 4% · disrupted
China 3% · 2 kt
Tier 1 · 40% +
Tier 2 · 9–15%
Tier 3 · 5–7%
Tier 4 · under 5%
Disrupted
Extreme concentration Two countries — Kazakhstan and Canada — account for more than half of global uranium production. Seven account for 92%. No other major commodity concentrates this heavily by geography.
Geological, not political The concentration reflects the distribution of specific geological conditions from billions of years ago. You cannot create an Athabasca basin with policy. Supply expands from existing districts or not at all.
The implication Uranium is a geopolitical system, not just a commercial one. Every scenario involving sanctions, supply disruption, or strategic positioning begins with this map.
§ 03 · At Criticality

Research is not commentary when capital moves behind it.

crit·i·cal·i·ty · noun The moment a nuclear reactor achieves a self-sustaining chain reaction. Before criticality, a reactor is inert. At criticality, it is productive. After criticality, energy compounds.

Every piece in this archive is written as research. Every piece is also a position we take seriously enough to put our own capital behind.

The same analysis that appears here drives where our money sits. Names, sizing, entries, and exits are ours. The research archive and the portfolio are not separate efforts. They are the same reasoning, applied twice.

This is not investment advice, and we don't publish positions in real time. But you should know the writing is not detached commentary from the sideline. The people producing it have skin in the core.

k-effective = 1.00
State Sustained
Delay None
Yield Compounding

Why this, and why written this way.

Uranium is the one commodity where understanding the geology is prerequisite to understanding the market. Oil traders can ignore the Cretaceous. Uranium investors cannot ignore the Proterozoic unconformity geology of the Athabasca Basin, or the Cretaceous sandstone basins of Kazakhstan, or why the IOCG systems of South Australia behave differently from everywhere else.

Most uranium writing falls into one of two modes. Retail speculation dressed as analysis, or institutional research that's paywalled, dense, and disconnected from what the reader actually needs to understand. Neither is useful for people who want to understand the space seriously without becoming an industry insider.

This archive sits in the gap. Finance-literate, geology-informed, structurally honest. Every piece is written for readers who already understand margins, cost curves, and operating leverage, but who've never had the uranium-specific frame laid out clearly.

And the occasional what if, modeled rigorously. Because the structure of the present market is only visible when you hold it against alternates that didn't happen.

The archive.

§ 06 · Subscribe

No schedule. No sponsor. Just the work.

New pieces arrive when there is something worth saying. Expect roughly one per month, occasionally two, occasionally none. Unsubscribe whenever.